Current State of the Mobile Marketplace

2009/10/6 Dean Collins

Iphone is good but people forget the ‘s only been around 2 years and the number one handset in the usa 2 years before that was the Motorola razor….remember that? Nope I don’t either…..iphone has just as much longevity.

Regards,
Dean Collins???Cognation Inc

On Behalf Of Randy Noval
Sent: Tuesday, October 06, 2009 6:58 PM
really? you’re comparing the iphone platform to the razr device? nothing has changed the handheld device landscape (i.e. everything) more than the iphone. even if it doesn’t own the entire market, it cannot be simply written off as yet another mobile phone. come on dean, there’s a massive difference in stickiness between a commodity cellular phone design (no matter how popular) and an entirely new application delivery platform.

http://gigaom.com/2009/08/27/how-big-is-apple-iphone-app-economy-the-answer-m…

According to mobile advertising startup AdMob, there are some $200 million worth of applications sold in Apple’s iPhone store every month, or about $2.4 billion a year.

the iphone /is/ everywhere. it’s in the palm pre, it’s in the android, it’s in every application marketplace that is being created for competing products. the iphone is a market definer, and so long as they keep pushing those boundaries, it will be around long after the last actual “iphone” has been sold. its longevity is self-evident in the way that companies have been forced to adapt or be ignored.

imho,
randy

On Behalf Of Dean Collins???Sent: Tuesday, October 06, 2009 7:02 PM
You might choose to restate your observations about the iphone being everywhere when you travel a little.
Cheers,
Dean

2009/10/7 Michael
In terms of your point about apple and the iphone. I get your point. I’ve pretty much always played with the newest “smartphones” as they hit the market. There were some in the US that came and went well before, say a Nokia 9000 (I think that is what their first smartphone was) – bought it in London at Heathrow. Of course played around with Psion, Symbian,  blah blah blah.
I don’t think Windows Mobile and Apple’s platform (ie; iphone ,itouch, ipod) are neck to neck at all. Personally I think Apple is way ahead on the phone end of things and I also think that Android is going to give them all a run for the money very soon. Just my opinion but I can almost see the writing on the wall with Google, Android and many other things Google is doing.
Your comment about seeing what goes on outside the USA with high tech gadgets is valid to some degree. Its just how it is – not everyone travels a lot or is exposed to certain things. On the mobile end  I get overwhelmed in Japan, specifically Akihabara. There is no place like Akihabara – nothing even comes close as far as I can tell.  Its crazy!!! You probably have been there but for those who haven’t I swear, you will never see so many gadgets in one place.  Really! BTW – some of the GPS navigation systems they have there are absolutely crazy. The coolest thing.
My favorite dinner thing there is having Shaboo Shaboo and hanging out for a while. Lots  of laughs.
Anyway…  had to chime in.

my point about the iphone platform seems to have slipped under the radar. it’s not just about selling hardware. the iphone changed the game across the board by creating an ecosystem for application sales as well. as such, the itouch is just as valid a device as the iphone for considering sales, especially since it does not require large cellular infrastructure to deliver services, making it much more available in the more developing areas. broadband wireless is being developed much faster than just cellular services and voip applications are ripe for upsetting that infrastructure.??????for some better numbers, here you go:???http://metrics.admob.com/??????as of august, apple has 13% of the global market, behind only RIM & Symbian. quite an accomplishment for a device that’s only 2 years old, especially considering that every competitor is scrambling to create similar products to the itunes store.??????this is not fanboyism, i’m trying to recognize / understand what has been happening with the marketplace. i am open to other interpretations if you can provide them with some measure of data to back it up.??????here’s another astute comment on market share as well:???http://www.theiphoneblog.com/2009/04/17/reminder-apple-profit-share-market-share/
Historically, Apple doesn’t care about market share, they care about profit share. (They already own mind share, so we’ll remove that from the equation for now).
after doing a little digging, i did find some information on why just being available in lots of places doesn’t necessarily translate into market share:???http://www.ibtimes.com.au/articles/20091001/iphones-global-success-is-more-marketing-myth-than-reality_all.htm
The 70+ countries is something that looks good on paper, but in terms of volume it doesn’t address the regional dynamics. One of the reasons why Nokia and Samsung are so good in developing markets is because they have mastered the art of effective manufacturing and distribution. They can make devices/services that suit the market. Apple is clearly not that type of company, nor do I think they are going in that direction. Having handsets readily available in 70+ countries is good for brand awareness, but it won’t necessarily drive market share.
and actually, that article is as good a rebuttal as i’ve seen for what’s going on around the world.??????as a final thought???Lloyds International’s Aussie arm dumps RIM’s BlackBerry for Apple’s iPhone???http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/22585/
“The Australian arm of global banking giant, Lloyds International, is planning to migrate up to 400 staff to the iPhone after conducting a successful pilot,” Trevor Clarke reports for Computerworld.

suffice to say, there’s still a whole lot of movement in this space and nothing is close to settling down.

imho,
randy

p.s. i was impressed by the list of countries, far more than i have on my passport. then again, this /is/ my third passport and as such it’s still fairly new. though, i have to carry around my previous one as this doesn’t have my visa for working / living in the UK.

From: Mark Nyon
Date: 2009/10/7

On Oct 7, 2009, at 4:17 AM, Randy Noval wrote:
i’m with michael, the ad hominem attacks add nothing of value to the conversation.
however, my point about the iphone platform seems to have slipped under the radar. it’s not just about selling hardware. the iphone changed the game across the board by creating an ecosystem for application sales as well. as such, the itouch is just as valid a device as the iphone for considering sales, especially since it does not require large cellular infrastructure to deliver services, making it much more available in the more developing areas. broadband wireless is being developed much faster than just cellular services and voip applications are ripe for upsetting that infrastructure.
for some better numbers, here you go:???
http://metrics.admob.com/

Looking at the report itself, this quote jumps out at me:

“The statistics do not represent handset sales or unique devices in the market, rather they represent the relative mobile usage we see from the sites and apps in our network.  This means that devices with heavy mobile usage (like the iPhone) have higher share than other devices.”
People who report that the iPhone has 40% of the smartphone market based on this data are inaccurate. It’s not possible to honestly make that claim.

In search of some better data, I came upon this page from the Gartner Group:
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1126812

“In the smartphone operating system (OS) market, Symbian held 51 per cent share, down from 57 per cent a year ago, while RIM and Apple grew their shares year-on-year. Android’s share was just under 2 per cent of the market and more Android-based devices will come to market in the fourth quarter of 2009, intensifying competition in the smartphone OS market, particularly for Symbian and Windows Mobile. Microsoft’s share continued to drop year-on-year to account for 9 per cent of the market in the second quarter of 2009.”
This (somewhat) correlates with the smartphone marketshare graph on Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone

The source of the Smartphone Marketshare graph was provided by Canalys, which has more information on a press release on their site. There are quite a few charts on the following URL which show the difference between North American Smartphone Market share and Global Smartphone Market Share.
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2009/r2009081.htm

That being said, while I do appreciate the UI enhancements and the experience of the Apple app store that other mobile phone makers are copying, I do not think it’s possible to say that the iPhone is ubiquitous worldwide, or to guarantee that the iPhone will dominate the worldwide smartphone market. The IBT article outlines a couple of reasons why this is not happening, in contrast to the perception from articles published by American journalists, the most important being cost in developing markets IMO.

I think that the Android OS is going to be a major factor moving forward, and between Nokia, Apple, RIM and Google, there will be a good competitive landscape over the next couple of years. I don’t feel as sanguine about Windows Mobile or Palm, but they are still a player in the space, and someone broke my crystal ball last week, so I have no idea what the future holds.

.02
— Mark

 

– Randall Noval

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